The Oakland Raiders experienced some Zenruption this year as they made massive improvements. The site mentioned has a piece about what to do with $200 that's similar to how the Raiders should act in free agency.
Viva mas amigos
Jerry Mooney
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Friday, May 3, 2013
A Raider Xanax
As the Oakland Raiders transition from an organization ran by an iconic and historically significant owner to one that attempts to modernize, there sounds a cacophony of concerns about the mold, model and direction of this once proud team. Al Davis faltered in his management of the team over the last decade, yet front and center to the criticisms of both fan and media is Reggie McKennzie. His attempt to reshape the roster to make it more competitive has been widely unpopular with Raiders fans regardless of the necessity or effectiveness of his work. By cutting players like Michael Huff, Darius Heyward-Bey, Tommy Kelly, Rolondo Mclain and in essence Richard Seymour, McKennzie eliminated players whose pay was vastly disparate to their production. These were all good moves that improved the roster now and will open up the roster for future upgrades. However, there is a problem within Raider nation. Part of the problem here is that the Raiders fan (and I'm one) has long associated a large contract player with a great player. If a player makes the league minimum he can't be that good. Conversely, if a player makes $10 million a year he must be near All Pro even if he isn't recognized as such. So, when Reggie McKennzie replaces a $10 million a year player (Tommy Kelly) with a league minimum player (Vance Walker) the Raiders must be going backwards from a talent standpoint, correct? Not so fast. The truth is, and strap on your Raiders helmets for this one: Al substantially over-paid many of his players. How much Al paid his players did not reflect their actual market value. Conversely, Reggie McKennzie seems to be pull off the rare opposite: he's finding a way to get good players at under market value. How? Reggie has been able to sell free agents on the idea of a "show me" contract. This means play well and you'll get your market value contract. In a year with a flat salary cap and a glut of free agents, many didn't want to sign a low, long-term contract when they felt like their future value would increase. Therefore, Mckennzie brought in hungry, talented players just chomping at the bit to show their worth. In doing so Mckennzie has cleverly worked around the anchor that the dead money has placed on this years salary cap. However, doing so has cause an anxiety attack throughout the collective consciousness of Raiders fans. This anxiety would be less pronounced if the same players were acquired by paying larger contracts there would be a collective perception that the Raiders signed good players. Let me explain: if instead of $40 some million in dead money the Raiders had no dead money but still signed Mike Jenkins (for say $6 million), Tracy Porter (for say $6 million), Nick Roach (for say $7 million), Kevin Burnett (for say $7 million), Pat Sims (for say $5 million), Kaluka Maiava (for say $5 million) and Usama Young (for say $5 million) which would have been business as usual under the Al Davis management, you'd have essentially the same players and cap but Raiders fans would feel like that was an all-star team. Same players. Same money. Different perception.
It reminds me of a scene in the Showtime series Weeds where a rich hedge fund manager is bragging about paying $3700 for a bottle of wine. He's asked how much better that wine tastes than say a $300 bottle. He basically says that he could give a long answer on tannins etc. But the short answer was that it taste $3400 better. I feel that Raiders fans have developed their taste for players in the same way. Although Raiders fans want good players and they want to win, we have cultivated expensive tastes and this bargain shopping has left many fans with an unsatisfied pallet What I'm saying here, though, is that the anxiety is psychosomatic. What fans are getting is really quality players replacing frauds and check cashers. I will show this by example of the defense, using ProFootballFocus.com's grading of players to show the real value of the moves made this off-season.
I will start with the secondary. Last year the two starting safeties were Matt Giordano and Tyvon Branch (yes I said Matt Giordano because Huff was quickly converted to corner). Tyvon Branch is still the starter this year so there is no upgrade or regression. Usama Young will presumably replace Giordano as the free safety. Matt Giordano played 820 snaps last year at free safety and had a combined run/pass efficiency rating of -4.2 (that's a minus) whereas Usama Young played 691 snaps (he started 11 games) and his combined run/pass efficiency was +8.5 and ranked in the top 5 overall in free agent safeties while being number 1 ranked against the run at his position and also having the ability to slide over to corner. Raiders fans know that was never going to happen with Matt Giordano (by the way, I like the plucky Giordano. I'm not picking on him but trying illustrate the point.) That's a swing of 12.7 points and is the difference between an average of bad plays for the defense and an average of positive plays for the defense.
Now I know corner was a real circus for the Raiders last year and it almost doesn't seem fair to point out the comparisons, but let's look: Shawnte Spencer had 113 snaps (injured) and was a total of -0.5 (not terrible) but still minus and Ron Bartell we hardly knew ya. Both corners were signed in a last minute attempt to find cheap but serviceable corners and both had little tread left on the tires. Neither could stay on the field, Michael Huff was converted to corner where he eventually did pretty well (+2.3 with 972 snaps) but the transition took some time and was painful. The Raiders highest graded corners were +Phillip Adams (+4.8 in 178 snaps) and +Joselio Hanson (+4.2 in 571 snaps).
Now the replacements have a few question marks as well. Mike Jenkens is only 28 years old but the former Pro-Bowler is coming of his worst season. He suffered a shoulder injury and was then moved inside to nickle which is not his natural position. As such, his production fell (-7.0 in only 374 snaps). His contract allows him to redeem himself and return to his Pro-Bowl form. If he does, the Raiders got a cheap, quality corner. If he doesn't, his contract will not burden the Raiders beyond this year. Either case, I can assure you he is an upgrade over the essentially non-existent Bartell or Spenser. Tracy Porter, only 26 years of age, is in a similar situation. Last year he suffered from seizures (which he says he has under control now). As such he wasn't a productive contributor to the Denver Broncos (-2.1 in 316 snaps) although he had a pick-six in his first game as a Bronco before his medical issues cost him his spot. And perhaps you recall, Porter was the corner that picked of Peyton Manning in the Superbowl that sealed a Saints victory. Add to Jenkin, Porter et al that the Raiders drafted DJ Hayden with their first round draft pick and it's hard to imagine their secondary not being vastly upgraded.
The linebacking corp has been completely revamped, to the point where there is speculation that the Raiders may switch to a base 3-4 instead of 4-3 due to personnel. Gone is Rolondo McLain (popularly known as Slowlando McLame), who not only brought a bad attitude and seemed to be out of position as a 4-3 middle linebacker. Also gone is the popular Phillip Wheeler. With Rolondo, I'm going to claim that his departure is addition by subtraction. Towards the end of the season he was replaced by the servicable Omar Gaither. And since being cut by the Raiders he was signed by the Ravens, but before he ever took the field for them he was, once again, arrested and subsequently retired. As much I think his mere absence is an upgrade, I am also very excited by McLain's replacement, Nick Roach. He replaced Brian Urlacher in the last four games of last season and all the 26 year old did was averaged 10 tackles per game in his stint replacing the future Hall-of-Famer.
Phillip Wheeler was a popular Raider and many complain that his one year "show me" season was a mistake because the Raiders couldn't afford to retain him. He went on to Miami for $35 million and who can blame him. Wheeler was the second highest ranked linebacker free agent this season so it would seem he'll be hard to replace. However, guess who the highest ranked linebacker was? Kevin Burnett. Their numbers were nearly identical too. Wheeler was a +9.9 in 1043 snaps. Burnett was 11.9 in 1096 snaps. I consider this a largely lateral move. Slightly more production by a slightly older play at a much cheaper price.
Kaluka Maiava seems to be the most under-rated of all of the off-season moves made this year by the Raiders. He is not a household name. He didn't play for the Jets or the Cowboys, so the national media has no reason to pay attention to him. All he did though was produce the 4th best numbers against the run and 7th best against the pass for his position last year, grading out at a +7.9 in 498 snaps. He is undersized and his name is hard to spell and pronounce so there are some real reasons he flew under the media's radar. And keep in mind, last year's rookie Miles Burris who flashed ability is still on the roster along with just drafted Sio Moore. Conclusion: the linebackers will be more dynamic and versatile, therefore an upgrade.
The defensive line, particularly the tackle position, seems to cause the most shrieking from Raiders fans and it's understandable. The Raiders lost promising young defensive tackle Desmond Bryant along with perpetually injured and substantially over-priced Richard Seymour as well as long tenured but over-priced and past his productive prime Tommy Kelly. Additionally, the Raiders lost young and promising defensive end Matt Shaughnessy. The Raiders also waited until late in the 6th round and the 7th round to address their defensive line, which has many fans writing their suicide notes. However, I say, I wish you would step back from that ledge my friends... Although I will confess that the defensive line still looks pretty thin, especially if there is a commitment to the 4-3 defense for a majority of the defensive looks.
To start with, I think we all know that Matt Shaughnessy was out of position. He has the run stopping ability of a left end and doesn't have the pass-rush skills needed for a right end. His sack totals reflect this and this was a primary reason the Raiders put little pressure on opposing passers. Look around the league, most sack totals come from right defensive ends and right outside linebackers. When the Raiders' right end has 4 sacks, you know the opposing quarterbacks have no fear. All of this would explain why Matt Shaughnessy scored a -11.6 with 689 snaps. Now Jason Hunter was injured last year so I have no score for him, but you don't have to be too optimistic to think that Jason Hunter, David Bass, Sio Moore et al and the increase blitzing and use of linebackers in the pass rush will increase last years anemic sack totals.
As far as the defensive tackles go, and this seems to be the cyanide pill for most fans, I remind you, just because you haven't heard of these guys doesn't mean they aren't good, productive football players. Now, the loss of Desmond Bryant, 26 years old and productive (+16.5 in 645 snaps) is a bit of a pill to swallow. He was young and productive and improving, but he got $35 million to leave and again, the Raiders were in no place to match from a cap standpoint. But, he was replaced by the equally young and also very productive Vance Walker (who?). I know, most Raiders fans think he's some scrub backup. But, he played over half the snaps on a team that was a hair from a Super Bowl appearance while scoring a +7.6 in 539 snaps...all while staying out of jail.
Now Tommy Kelly reminds me of Kimbo Slice and that fact alone makes me sad that he's no-longer a Raider. However, when you compare his production -8.0 in 776 snaps and his $10 million cap hit to Pat Sims -1.7 (+2.5 against the run) and his $1 million dollar, one year deal, I'll take Sims.
As far as Seymour goes, he was a warrior. He's a future Hall-of-Famer. But he only played in the first 7 games. Usually couldn't practice. In his 361 snaps he was a +9.5, but is that worth $15 million? No.
So now the the defensive line is in the hands of the young and productive Vance Walker, the stout Pat Sims and a handfull of unproven young players like Christo Bilukidi, Stacy McGee and Johnny Jones and perhaps additons after June 1st and camp cuts. Is this the Fearsome Foursome? No! Is it the Steele Curtain? No. Is it the new Unknown Defense the Cowboys fielded in the 90s? We'll see. But most Raider fans seem to think Napolean Dynamite will be anchoring the Raiders line and that's just hysterical (not just funny but hysteria).
To conclude, the majority of the new players we will be watching on defense are not only cheaper, not only younger, not only hungrier, but typically better. It's that simple. They don't have the price tag of the former Raiders (Remember Stanford Routt?), but that has virtually nothing to do with their quality. So, my Raiders brethren relax a little and appreciate that these Raiders might not be Louis Vuttons, but who wants that in a football player anyway?
It reminds me of a scene in the Showtime series Weeds where a rich hedge fund manager is bragging about paying $3700 for a bottle of wine. He's asked how much better that wine tastes than say a $300 bottle. He basically says that he could give a long answer on tannins etc. But the short answer was that it taste $3400 better. I feel that Raiders fans have developed their taste for players in the same way. Although Raiders fans want good players and they want to win, we have cultivated expensive tastes and this bargain shopping has left many fans with an unsatisfied pallet What I'm saying here, though, is that the anxiety is psychosomatic. What fans are getting is really quality players replacing frauds and check cashers. I will show this by example of the defense, using ProFootballFocus.com's grading of players to show the real value of the moves made this off-season.
I will start with the secondary. Last year the two starting safeties were Matt Giordano and Tyvon Branch (yes I said Matt Giordano because Huff was quickly converted to corner). Tyvon Branch is still the starter this year so there is no upgrade or regression. Usama Young will presumably replace Giordano as the free safety. Matt Giordano played 820 snaps last year at free safety and had a combined run/pass efficiency rating of -4.2 (that's a minus) whereas Usama Young played 691 snaps (he started 11 games) and his combined run/pass efficiency was +8.5 and ranked in the top 5 overall in free agent safeties while being number 1 ranked against the run at his position and also having the ability to slide over to corner. Raiders fans know that was never going to happen with Matt Giordano (by the way, I like the plucky Giordano. I'm not picking on him but trying illustrate the point.) That's a swing of 12.7 points and is the difference between an average of bad plays for the defense and an average of positive plays for the defense.
Now I know corner was a real circus for the Raiders last year and it almost doesn't seem fair to point out the comparisons, but let's look: Shawnte Spencer had 113 snaps (injured) and was a total of -0.5 (not terrible) but still minus and Ron Bartell we hardly knew ya. Both corners were signed in a last minute attempt to find cheap but serviceable corners and both had little tread left on the tires. Neither could stay on the field, Michael Huff was converted to corner where he eventually did pretty well (+2.3 with 972 snaps) but the transition took some time and was painful. The Raiders highest graded corners were +Phillip Adams (+4.8 in 178 snaps) and +Joselio Hanson (+4.2 in 571 snaps).
Now the replacements have a few question marks as well. Mike Jenkens is only 28 years old but the former Pro-Bowler is coming of his worst season. He suffered a shoulder injury and was then moved inside to nickle which is not his natural position. As such, his production fell (-7.0 in only 374 snaps). His contract allows him to redeem himself and return to his Pro-Bowl form. If he does, the Raiders got a cheap, quality corner. If he doesn't, his contract will not burden the Raiders beyond this year. Either case, I can assure you he is an upgrade over the essentially non-existent Bartell or Spenser. Tracy Porter, only 26 years of age, is in a similar situation. Last year he suffered from seizures (which he says he has under control now). As such he wasn't a productive contributor to the Denver Broncos (-2.1 in 316 snaps) although he had a pick-six in his first game as a Bronco before his medical issues cost him his spot. And perhaps you recall, Porter was the corner that picked of Peyton Manning in the Superbowl that sealed a Saints victory. Add to Jenkin, Porter et al that the Raiders drafted DJ Hayden with their first round draft pick and it's hard to imagine their secondary not being vastly upgraded.
The linebacking corp has been completely revamped, to the point where there is speculation that the Raiders may switch to a base 3-4 instead of 4-3 due to personnel. Gone is Rolondo McLain (popularly known as Slowlando McLame), who not only brought a bad attitude and seemed to be out of position as a 4-3 middle linebacker. Also gone is the popular Phillip Wheeler. With Rolondo, I'm going to claim that his departure is addition by subtraction. Towards the end of the season he was replaced by the servicable Omar Gaither. And since being cut by the Raiders he was signed by the Ravens, but before he ever took the field for them he was, once again, arrested and subsequently retired. As much I think his mere absence is an upgrade, I am also very excited by McLain's replacement, Nick Roach. He replaced Brian Urlacher in the last four games of last season and all the 26 year old did was averaged 10 tackles per game in his stint replacing the future Hall-of-Famer.
Phillip Wheeler was a popular Raider and many complain that his one year "show me" season was a mistake because the Raiders couldn't afford to retain him. He went on to Miami for $35 million and who can blame him. Wheeler was the second highest ranked linebacker free agent this season so it would seem he'll be hard to replace. However, guess who the highest ranked linebacker was? Kevin Burnett. Their numbers were nearly identical too. Wheeler was a +9.9 in 1043 snaps. Burnett was 11.9 in 1096 snaps. I consider this a largely lateral move. Slightly more production by a slightly older play at a much cheaper price.
Kaluka Maiava seems to be the most under-rated of all of the off-season moves made this year by the Raiders. He is not a household name. He didn't play for the Jets or the Cowboys, so the national media has no reason to pay attention to him. All he did though was produce the 4th best numbers against the run and 7th best against the pass for his position last year, grading out at a +7.9 in 498 snaps. He is undersized and his name is hard to spell and pronounce so there are some real reasons he flew under the media's radar. And keep in mind, last year's rookie Miles Burris who flashed ability is still on the roster along with just drafted Sio Moore. Conclusion: the linebackers will be more dynamic and versatile, therefore an upgrade.
The defensive line, particularly the tackle position, seems to cause the most shrieking from Raiders fans and it's understandable. The Raiders lost promising young defensive tackle Desmond Bryant along with perpetually injured and substantially over-priced Richard Seymour as well as long tenured but over-priced and past his productive prime Tommy Kelly. Additionally, the Raiders lost young and promising defensive end Matt Shaughnessy. The Raiders also waited until late in the 6th round and the 7th round to address their defensive line, which has many fans writing their suicide notes. However, I say, I wish you would step back from that ledge my friends... Although I will confess that the defensive line still looks pretty thin, especially if there is a commitment to the 4-3 defense for a majority of the defensive looks.
To start with, I think we all know that Matt Shaughnessy was out of position. He has the run stopping ability of a left end and doesn't have the pass-rush skills needed for a right end. His sack totals reflect this and this was a primary reason the Raiders put little pressure on opposing passers. Look around the league, most sack totals come from right defensive ends and right outside linebackers. When the Raiders' right end has 4 sacks, you know the opposing quarterbacks have no fear. All of this would explain why Matt Shaughnessy scored a -11.6 with 689 snaps. Now Jason Hunter was injured last year so I have no score for him, but you don't have to be too optimistic to think that Jason Hunter, David Bass, Sio Moore et al and the increase blitzing and use of linebackers in the pass rush will increase last years anemic sack totals.
As far as the defensive tackles go, and this seems to be the cyanide pill for most fans, I remind you, just because you haven't heard of these guys doesn't mean they aren't good, productive football players. Now, the loss of Desmond Bryant, 26 years old and productive (+16.5 in 645 snaps) is a bit of a pill to swallow. He was young and productive and improving, but he got $35 million to leave and again, the Raiders were in no place to match from a cap standpoint. But, he was replaced by the equally young and also very productive Vance Walker (who?). I know, most Raiders fans think he's some scrub backup. But, he played over half the snaps on a team that was a hair from a Super Bowl appearance while scoring a +7.6 in 539 snaps...all while staying out of jail.
Now Tommy Kelly reminds me of Kimbo Slice and that fact alone makes me sad that he's no-longer a Raider. However, when you compare his production -8.0 in 776 snaps and his $10 million cap hit to Pat Sims -1.7 (+2.5 against the run) and his $1 million dollar, one year deal, I'll take Sims.
As far as Seymour goes, he was a warrior. He's a future Hall-of-Famer. But he only played in the first 7 games. Usually couldn't practice. In his 361 snaps he was a +9.5, but is that worth $15 million? No.
So now the the defensive line is in the hands of the young and productive Vance Walker, the stout Pat Sims and a handfull of unproven young players like Christo Bilukidi, Stacy McGee and Johnny Jones and perhaps additons after June 1st and camp cuts. Is this the Fearsome Foursome? No! Is it the Steele Curtain? No. Is it the new Unknown Defense the Cowboys fielded in the 90s? We'll see. But most Raider fans seem to think Napolean Dynamite will be anchoring the Raiders line and that's just hysterical (not just funny but hysteria).
To conclude, the majority of the new players we will be watching on defense are not only cheaper, not only younger, not only hungrier, but typically better. It's that simple. They don't have the price tag of the former Raiders (Remember Stanford Routt?), but that has virtually nothing to do with their quality. So, my Raiders brethren relax a little and appreciate that these Raiders might not be Louis Vuttons, but who wants that in a football player anyway?
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